Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 81367.669204 85887.206241 90403.746271 95252.714925 100307.920913 105419.457599 110975.288056
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 73446.893321 80333.971627 87408.457544 95208.381246 103556.450958 112212.901850 121857.234720
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 68713.142584 77286.741248 86284.849392 96411.385502 107468.870497 119154.752802 132416.599017
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 64034.331543 73766.960871 84169.887378 96081.734497 109308.073844 123507.615229 139867.936659
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 61405.619046 72203.861408 83927.252810 97549.200276 112888.427875 129573.705310 149040.590761
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 58845.195146 70497.997642 83329.565106 98437.326701 115665.075057 134624.464688 156991.205921
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 56112.221381 68414.826911 82142.767847 98505.734921 117383.199888 138382.137960 163407.463130
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 53550.409141 66382.643074 80881.283832 98362.554147 118749.486572 141653.527278 169205.114199
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 52361.622796 65873.528693 81309.934705 100111.453708 122247.186027 147332.241192 177753.197015
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 51269.417551 65406.775960 81727.305302 101795.841509 125633.903901 152866.775174 186141.802971
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 49771.823474 64378.055955 81414.165655 102558.946055 127893.770148 157064.101424 192966.885639
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 47910.545764 62829.679681 80409.785089 102432.343861 129045.131396 159923.513344 198200.326109
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 46389.935214 61670.068977 79858.350638 102850.510538 130867.922271 163620.523685 204502.338505
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 44747.172264 60302.302061 79005.370004 102862.260661 132174.272792 166693.948203 210074.743900
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 43847.826476 59827.986593 79218.650636 104154.896629 135021.533883 171613.340747 217877.976081
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 42211.663627 58359.457442 78144.289137 103806.943459 135821.624271 174038.175278 222663.860788
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 41576.160398 58144.650525 78616.598343 105368.686653 138967.806723 179315.153641 230931.175812
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 40696.474526 57578.748025 78616.263628 106313.502261 141334.764924 183640.351937 238054.361111
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 39472.604694 56521.231313 77952.869325 106386.290876 142587.111119 186583.344633 243483.423407
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 38213.178313 55375.992808 77139.771936 106234.006151 143528.952033 189125.780707 248414.269091
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 37884.157099 55454.623398 77898.819313 108093.999430 147020.440022 194848.375910 257316.361509
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 37545.558874 55503.978809 78608.372077 109885.009713 150428.623662 200483.485088 266143.208814
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 36819.796551 55003.925353 78576.494699 110696.300792 152575.205770 204539.956590 273014.102755